Belarus in the Brave New World

November 5: Global context: Free Trade Forever?

The World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report-2018 called “the death of trade” one of the future shocks. The future has arrived: trade war between the US and China as well as the EU has been unleashed. The global institutions created for enhancing free trade seems already too weak to resolve this conflict and are facing a crisis of trust. The World Bank warns that “trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners would have consequences for global trade equivalent to the 2008 financial crisis”. How can global or regional trade agreements tackle the emerging challenges? What are the consequences of these trade shocks to the region? How vulnerable is Belarus?

November 6: Local Solutions: Re-Defining Reforms Agenda

Belarusian middle class is back and the economic recovery is on the way, even though it has not turned to sustainable growth. Current account looks almost balanced, but international investment position is far less optimistic. Inflation is record low, confidence to national currency is higher than ever in the last decade, and it helps to recover private sector investment. However, private sector reports new obstacles for doing business: uneven playing field, inefficient judicial system, arbitrary treatment of legislation by the authorities. Addressing all these issues require further reforms, and one of the obstacles to move further is a perception that “people are not ready for reforms”. This statement as well as a new reform agenda are to be examined closely in the 2nd day.