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PP/08/09 Eastern Partnership: Prospects for Intensifying the Belarus – EU Relations in the Energy Sector? (PDF/201Kb) [17/11/2009]
Zachmann, G., Giucci, R.
The Eastern Partnership is a new policy framework for the cooperation of six East European countries and the EU. Following a phase of relaxation in the EU-Belarus relations, Belarus participates in the multilateral dimension of this new initiative. This decision will shape the EU-Belarus relations in the years to come. The Eastern Partnership agreement treats energy issues with high priority. As Belarus happens to be a pivotal energy transit country for Europe, there appears to be much room for tightening the cooperation in the energy sector. This article asks whether the Eastern Partnership will live up to the high expectations expressed by Belarus and what the country could do to benefit from this new initiative.
PP/07/09 Perspectives for Fiscal Policy and Budget Deficit Financing in Belarus (PDF/142Kb) [16/11/2009]
Shymanovich, G., Kirchner, R., Giucci, R.
Belarus has a tradition of conducting solid fiscal policies. To take an example, in 2008 the budget featured a surplus of 1.4% of GDP and at the end of 2008 total public debt amounted to 13% of GDP, which is a very modest level in international comparison. However, the arrival of the international financial crisis and the resulting economic downturn in Belarus at the end of 2008 creates great challenges to fiscal policy and debt management. As a result of the crisis, Belarus is likely to run sizeable budgets deficits and pile up public debt in the coming years. Obviously, a continuation of "business as usual" is not feasible. Instead, the country has to adapt to the new fiscal reality and formulate an adequate policy response to deal with the new situation.
PP/06/09 Official Reserve Adequacy in Belarus: Analysis and Recommendations [07/11/2009]
Kirchner, R., Giucci, R.
The main goal of this paper is to assess the adequacy of official reserves in Belarus. Based on a thorough review of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature we select three standard criteria for such an assessment: The "classical" import coverage criterion, with its exclusive focus on foreign trade; the Guidotti-Greenspan criterion, which is based on short-term external liabilities of the country; and the Wijnholds-Kapteyn criterion, which was developed to catch the important phenomenon of "internal" capital flight, i.e. the conversion of domestic into foreign currency by residents. According to the three criteria, the minimum level to be considered as adequate is USD 8.7 bn, USD 8.9 bn or USD 12.2 bn, respectively. These minimum values contrast sharply with the level of USD 2.65 bn at the end of the second quarter 2009.
PP/05/09 Policy Measures to Attract FDI: An Overview of International Experience and Recommendations for Belarus (PDF/130Kb) [11/10/2009]
Tochitskaya. I.
Over the last two decades global competition for FDI has sharpened considerably. Improving foreign direct attractiveness and making the most of locational advantages is a challenging task for national governments that calls for the design and implementation of sophisticated and comprehensive policy measures. This paper examines FDI policies in China, India, Korea, Brazil, Slovakia and Poland; countries that achieved most impressive results in FDI attraction and foreign capital utilization. Analysis of these countries’ experiences reveals that provision of incentives coupled with the implementation of macroeconomic policies that help foreign investors to conduct business without incurring unnecessary risk and there are the key factors in creating a favourable environment for FDI.
PP/04/09 Perspectives and Challenges for Economic Policy in Belarus during the Global Crisis: Evidence from Macroeconometric Modelling (PDF/113Kb) [16/09/2009]
Kruk, Dz., Chubrik, A.
This paper deals with the perspectives of the development of the Belarusian economy during the global crisis and options of economic policies. We show that during 2009 Belarusian economy faces a couple of challenges that are consequent to its structural distortions, which, however, were strengthened substantially by the negative global conjuncture. In this situation a current account deficit achieved definitely dangerous level. However, taking this problem into consideration, economic authorities paid much attention to maintaining the growth of GDP. The current policy mix includes enhancing more flexibility to the exchange rate and more rigid fiscal discipline.
PP/03/09 The Belarusian Electricity Sector: Financing Sources for Investments (PDF/160Kb) [03/09/2009]
Zachmann, G., Zaborovskiy, A.
Until 2020 Belarus will need to invest between USD 10–30 bn in its electricity sector. Under the current strategy only USD 675 m are to be invested annually in the entire energy industry (including heating). We argue that the planned financing mix, especially the high budget finance, is not sustainable. Thus, we analyze whether and how the shares of different financing sources in the finance mix should be scaled up or down. In particular we study self-finance, government grants, loans and private sector participation.
PP/02/09 Privatisation in Belarus during the Global Financial Crisis: No time to Lose (PDF/235Kb) [23/07/2009]
Kirchner, R., Giucci, R.
Until 2007, state ownership was one of the pillars of the socio-economic model implemented by Belarus. Accordingly, privatisation was not considered as an important policy goal for the country. However, this ideology changed at the start of 2007. Privatisation and foreign direct investment became central goals of economic policy and were set high on the political agenda. However, with the arrival of the global financial crisis to Belarus at the end of 2008, the privatisation process has run into a standstill. We propose a "dual strategy" to secure the continuation of the privatisation process, without conducting a large scale fire selling. The strategy implies on the one hand selling of state enterprises in sectors, which were not massively hit by the crisis, and on the other hand pre-privatisation deals.
PP/01/09 The Belarusian Insurance Market Characteristics in the Context of Economic Liberalization: Analysis and Policy Recommendations (PDF/136Kb) [18/05/2009]
Glambotskaya, A.
Some general trends towards economic liberalization in Belarus in the recent years have been long-awaited. Financial sector, namely the banking sector, has also experienced deregulation since mid 2000th. Regulation of the Belarusian insurance sector, on the other hand, remains strong. Recent changes in the insurance legislation have been divergent by nature. Insurance premiums have been growing, but their share in GDP remained less than 1%. The biggest share of the insurance market belongs to the state-owned insurers. Opportunities for the development of private insurers and insurers with foreign ownership are limited.
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