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PP/08/08 Recent Developments and Impact of the International Financial Crisis on Belarus [10/01/2009]
Kruk, D.
The paper deals with the new tendencies in the global economy and its impact on the prospects for the Belarusian economy. The bankruptcy of Lehmann Brothers informed a substantial distrust at the credit market and the process of rapid demonetization of the global economy began. Furthermore, it led to expansion of the crises to the real sector, which have nothing to do but face with global recession. These created additional challenges for the Belarusian economy such as difficulties for exporters at the Russian markets, decreasing export revenues for oil, potash, ferrous metals, etc. Possible scenarios of the Belarusian producers’ competitiveness at the Russian market are emphasized in the paper. Furthermore, implications for the internal economic policy are discussed as well in the study. Alongside a longer term agenda is analyzed and possible strategic threats and perspectives for the Belarusian economy under the condition of the global financial distress is discussed.
PP/07/08 Impact of FDI on Trade and Technology Transfer in Belarus: Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications (PDF/140Kb) [09/01/2009]
Kolesnikova, I., Tochitskaya, I.
Belarus officially welcomes foreign direct investment (FDI) and has undertaken several measures to attract them to the country. The policy has been taken on the ground that the incoming FDI brings about transfer of technology and managerial know-how, which will spill over to domestic firms, enhance their competitiveness and integration with the global economy. Using firmlevel data on 2,000 domestic companies for the period 1998–2006, we investigate the impact of FDI on firms’ exports and estimate whether foreign direct investment supports the shift towards product innovation. We find that companies with foreign direct investments are less labor intensive and more capital intensive, and consequently more technologically sophisticated than domestic firms.
PP/06/08 Reinsurance Practices in Belarus: Barriers to Insurance Sector Development and Investments Limitation (PDF/109Kb) [20/12/2008]
Glambotskaya, A.
This paper studies the issue of reinsurance sector regulation and development in Belarus. Irrespective of several steps towards Belarusian economy liberalization, reinsurance in Belarus was largely deliberalized and monopolized in Belarus in 2006 by the creation of Belarusian National Reinsurance Organization (Belarus Re). Although the authorized capital of Belarus Re exceeds those of other insurers in Belarus that allows reinsuring higher risks and halting the outflow of reinsurance premiums abroad, its activity is largely based on non-market principles that impeded further insurance and reinsurance sectors development and investments growth in Belarus.
PP/05/08 Restructuring the Belarusian Electricity Sector: Setting the Agenda (PDF/480Kb) [29/11/2008]
Zachmann, G., Zaborovskiy, A., Giucci, R.
The Belarusian electricity sector is faced with increasing demand, the effects of a long phase of underinvestment, low efficiency and comparatively high generation cost. These challenges can only be met by strong investment in generation, transmission and distribution capacities. According to our estimates, the investments requirements till 2020 will amount to USD 20 – 30 bn. In the current environment we think that neither the state budget nor BELENERGOs cash flow will be sufficient to meet the financing needs. Consequently, private and in particular foreign investment is needed. Foreign investors, however, will not engage unless the current regulatory environment (vertically integrated state owned monopolist and a poor legislative basis) is significantly altered. In this paper we therefore set the agenda for the implementation of such reforms.
PP/04/08 The case for tariff differentiation in the Belarusian electricity sector (PDF/223Kb) [14/11/2008]
Zachmann, G., Zaborovskiy, A.
This study analyzes the current state of the art and potentials for tariff differentiation in the Belarusian electricity sector. Attempts to implement intertemporal tariff differentiation in Belarus have not been successful but the benefit expected from an efficient scheme might be significant. By reducing peak demand by 5% an efficient tariff differentiation scheme could reduce the annual cost of the Belarusian electricity system by USD 25-30 m. Because time-of-use demand measuring is costly, we argue that targeted demand shifting incentives for a small number of big consumers (industry) would be more efficient than a general scheme in Belarus.
PP/03/08 The International Financial Crisis and Belarus: Risks and Policy Implications (PDF/214Kb) [14/08/2008]
Kruk, D., Kirchner, R., Giucci, R.
Currently, the international financial system is threatened by a severe crisis, which turns out to be the most serious challenge in decades. Starting in the US housing market in 2007, it spilled quickly over to financial institutions and capital markets in the USA and other developed economies, especially in the EU. Worldwide, policy makers have already reacted strongly in order to avoid a collapse in the financial system, and to prevent a spillover to the real economy, i.e. a fall in growth and employment. For the authorities in Belarus, this poses the natural question, how their country has been affected by the crisis so far, and what future risks lay still ahead. This paper tries to assess these risks and the associated policy implications both in the short and the longer term.
PP/02/08 The competitiveness of Belarusian agriculture (PDF/133Kb) [11/08/2008]
von Cramon-Taubadel, S., Nivyevskiy, O., Ziamtsou, S.
In this paper we present preliminary results of an analysis of the competitiveness of agriculture in Belarus. Policy makers need information on competitiveness and the factors that influence it to design targeted and efficient policies in agriculture. The competitiveness analysis in this paper is based on an established and relatively easy method for measuring competitiveness that provides insights into the distribution of competitiveness across a group of farms. By considering the distribution of competitiveness we avoid the pitfalls of working with average data.
PP/01/08 Pension System in Belarus: Major Challenges and the Ways of Meeting Them (PDF/110Kb) [06/06/2008]
Haiduk, K., Chubrik, A., Giucci, R.
Belarus is facing a demographic challenge that should be properly met by reforming its pension system. In this paper, it is argued that the existing mono-pillar system should be changed by shifting to a two-pillar one along with some increase in the pension age. However, in order to be effective, these measures should be compatible with the demands and expectations of both current and future pensioners.
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