Policy papers and policy discussion papers are focused on specific problems of economic policy. They serve as a tool of policy advice to the government and other organizations involved in the policymaking process on economic issues. Policy papers are published within the project “German Economic Team in Belarus”. They are prepared by the IPM Research Center economists and German experts, experienced in economic consulting of the governments in Ukraine, Germany and other countries.
RECENT PUBLICATIONS
PP/04/2011 Sustainability of External Debt in Belarus: Analysis and Policy Recommendations (PDF/171Kb) [16/12/2011]
Shymanovich, G., Kirchner, R.
Faced with persistent external imbalances over the last couple of years, Belarus responded to these developments with a rapid build-up of its external debt stock. It grew in USD terms by more than 4 times over 2007-2010, from USD 6.8 bn in the beginning of 2007 to 28.4 bn in the end of 2010. The current level of external debt and the speed of change over the recent past raise immediately the question of debt sustainability in Belarus, i.e. the ability of the country to meet its current and future debt service obligations in full without negative consequences to its economic development. In this paper, we discuss a number of possible approaches and indicators to assess debt sustainability, both by domestic and international standards, and apply them to the concrete context of Belarus.
PP/03/2011 Developing Minsk's Financial Sector towards a Regional Financial Centre (PDF/117Kb) [22/08/2011]
de la Rubia, C., Kirchner, R., Skriba, A.
The Belarusian authorities plan to develop Minsk’s financial sector into a regional financial centre, serving also neighbouring countries with a broad range of financial services. A well-developed and diversified regional financial centre would be able to attract additional foreign savings, thereby supplementing the national savings and allocating them in a more efficient way. This would positively affect domestic investment and support diversified economic growth, for which the authorities have set very ambitious targets in the socio-economic plan for 2011-2015.We identify six areas, which are of paramount importance for a regional financial centre: The macroeconomic environment, the banking sector, non-bank financial institutions, the legal environment, infrastructure as well as a number of soft factors. Each of these areas has to meet certain ambitious objectives if the aim of successful regional centre is to be achieved.
PP/02/2011 How to Increase Sophistication of Belarus’ Export Basket (PDF/98Kb) [07/07/2011]
Tochitskaya, I.
The paper discusses the level of sophistication (productivity) of Belarus’ export basket. The analysis revealed the unfavourable changes in the structure of Belarus exports, i.e. the increase in the share of low productivity goods that in its turn brought about a reduction in the level of sophistication of Belarus’ export basket in comparison with some other countries, e.g. Russia, Ukraine, and Poland. This tendency testifies not only to a certain decrease in productivity of Belarus’ export basket but also to the fact that growth prospects in the medium term are deteriorating as well.
PP/01/2011 Estimating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Belarus (PDF/143Kb) [28/06/2011]
Zaretsky, A., Kruk, D., Kirchner, R.
The exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble has recently regained substantial attention. After serious balance-of-payments problems, the National Bank devalued eventually at the end of May 2011 the ruble versus the US-dollar by 56%. At the same time, this action has not restored order in the market, which is still not working properly. These developments also renewed interest in a quantitative assessment of the equilibrium exchange rate of the ruble. This is the level of the exchange rate that is determined by the values economic variables (“fundamentals”) that are projected to prevail in the medium-term such as relative inflation, interest rates or economic growth. However, market exchange rates are also influenced by other “non-fundamental” factors, which can lead to substantial short-run movements away from its fundamental value.
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