Maps of Bounded Rationality: A Perspective on Intuitive Judgment and Choice [14/02/2006]
Kahneman, D.
Early studies of intuitive judgment and decision making conducted with the late Amos Tversky are reviewed in the context of two related concepts: an analysis of accessibility, the ease with which thoughts come to mind; a distinction between effortless intuition and deliberate reasoning. Intuitive thoughts, like percepts, are highly accessible. Determinants and consequences of accessibility help explain the central results of prospect theory, framing effects, the heuristic process of attribute substitution, and the characteristic biases that result from the substitution of nonextensional for extensional attributes. Variations in the accessibility of rules explain the occasional corrections of intuitive judgments. The study of biases is compatible with a view of intuitive thinking and decision making as generally skilled and successful.
External Trade in the CIS Countries [13/02/2006]
Mogilevsky, R., Tochitskaya, I.
The paper considers changes in both the composition and direction of external trade in the CIS countries since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and analyses macroeconomic, political, and ecological consequences of the increased share of raw materials in their exports. It also considers problems with respect to regional trade cooperation within the CIS and accession to the WTO as well as economic relations with the main trade partners outside the CIS. Furthermore, the paper analyses characteristic relationships between the external trade and the institutional and social development of the countries with a special focus on the socioeconomic inefficiency of the government protectionist policy in some of the CIS countries.
Privatization and Restructuring of Enterprises in CIS Countries [11/11/2005]
Kozarzewski, P., Rakova, E.
This paper is about real sector privatization and restructuring in CIS countries. It points out at differences in these processes between CIS and CEB countries. The authors study the starting conditions, the main goals and tasks of reforms in these sphere. They analyze what methods were used and what sequence of transformation was observed. In addition, the interrelation with other reforms is also in focus of the research. Analyzing the outcome of privatization, the authors pay special attention to endogenous and exogenous factors that determine its results and effectiveness. Finally, the authors conclude that the key factors for successful privatization are a new ownership structure and legal and institutional climate for business. They recommend tools and mechanisms of privatization completion and make suggestions on how to reform other sectors.
Impact of the Institutional Environment on the Business Development [10/11/2005]
Chubrik, M.
The paper analyses an impact of the institutional environment – both formal and informal – on the private business development. In considers a relationship between the quality of business environment and the private sector’s share in GDP. The 25 transition economies (except for Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) have been ranked according to the index of ease in doing business. The author discovered a positive relationship between the ease in doing business and the private sector’s share in GDP. This relationship is most robust for the countries with the least favorable business environment (this is also the case for Belarus). The improvement of the business environment in these countries would lead to the largest expansion of the private sector. Since a positive relationship between the GDP growth and the private sector’s share in GDP has been revealed, the easing of doing business in such countries would also lead to higher economic growth.
Interaction of the Government and the Central Bank: Can We Overcome the “Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic”? [09/11/2005]
Pekarsky, S.
Fiscal and monetary policy interaction is stipulated by many reasons. One of them is to keep sustainability of public debt. In this paper we recur to the celebrated “unpleasant monetarist arithmetic” by Sargent and Wallace and suggest the way to overcome the problem. In the framework of our theoretical experiment it is possible to tighten monetary policy permanently while keeping public debt sustainable for given fiscal policy. There are three main factors underlying the logic of policy interaction: inflationary regime, expectations concerning future policy switch, and the interest rate on public debt.
Comparative Oligarchy: Russia, Ukraine, and the United States [07/11/2005]
Aslund, A.
The incidence of oligarchs is one of the most significant political problems after communism. An appropriate policy towards them has become a pressing issue for both Russia and Ukraine and addressing this matter will greatly influence the future economic systems of these countries. The paper examines the nature of oligarchs and the reasons for their emergence. Similarities with the great new businessmen in America of the 1850s, the so-called “robber barons”, are drawn. The paper also discusses common reactions to oligarchs and the ways to treat the oligarch problem. Finally, it reviews a number of policy and political options; and promotes making oligarchs pay a compensation for benefits they have enjoyed, in return guaranteeing them their property rights.
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