Who Lost Russia? [15/11/2004]
Stiglitz, J.
In many countries, the transition process that began with the fall of the Berlin Wall in late 1989 is far from over. But it is clear that in Russia it has fallen far short of what the advocates of the market economy has promised, or hoped for. As shown in this paper, for the majority of the population, economic life under capitalism has been even worse than the old Communist leaders had said it would be. A system of crony and mafia capitalism has been created. The middle class has been devastated. The one achievement, the creation of a democracy, appears fragile at best. Prospects for the future are bleak. While those in Russia must bear much of the blame for what has happened, the Western advisers especially from the United States and the IMF, who encouraged Russia to pursue the policies of the Washington consensus, involving price and trade liberalization, financial stabilization, and privatization, must also take some blame.
Rogoff, K. [14/11/2004]
An Open Letter to Joseph Stiglitz
A Normal Country [13/11/2004]
Shleifer, A., Treisman, D.
During the 1990s, Russia underwent an extraordinary transformation from a communist dictatorship to a multi-party democracy, from a centrally planned economy to a market economy, and from a belligerent adversary of the West to a cooperative partner. Yet a consensus in the US circa 2000 viewed Russia as a disastrous and threatening failure, and the 1990s as a decade of catastrophe for its citizens. Analyzing a variety of economic and political data, we demonstrate a large gap between this perception and the facts. In contrast to the common image, by the late 1990s Russia had become a typical middle-income capitalist democracy.
Lessons From the Russian Crisis: Five Years After [12/11/2004]
Dabrowski, M.
The August 1998 financial crisis seems to be already almost forgotten historical episode. Russian economy continues to grow at rapid pace and some of economic reforms (particularly simplification of the tax system) undertaken since 2000 have been followed as positive experience by other transition countries. In spite of these positive developments a key concern relates to long-term sustainability of economic growth. This paper tries to analyze both macro- and microeconomic consequences of August 1998 crisis, the sources of rapid growth of Russia’s economy and key potential obstacles to future economic developments. Among the latter the most important are: a poor business climate caused by remaining pathologies of post-Soviet state and deficit of democracy, and chronic moderate inflation determined by the conflicting goals of monetary policy.
Small Business Taxation: International Experience and Implications for Belarus [11/11/2004]
Valevich, Y.
The creation of an efficient system of small business taxation that is adequate to the Belarusian circumstances and contributes to development of entrepreneurship is an important task for the government. At present, the existing simplified system of taxation turned out practically unclaimed. Despite its advantages regarding simplification of taxation, bookkeeping, and reporting, this system is only used by 1% of the individual entrepreneurs and small enterprises eligible for it. All of this underscores the necessity to reform the existing simplified system of taxation. This paper considers possible options of simplified and presumptive taxation, analyses the existing systems of simplified and presumptive taxation, and determines possible directions of the tax reform based on the international experience.
Insolvency Prediction of Operating Firms in Belarus [10/11/2004]
Chernovalov, A., Shevchuk, A.
The paper considers the recent problems of bankruptcy predictions based on the Z-coefficient of Altman. Using the mathematic methods (method of main components, Jacoby’s rotations method, method of dependent object models) it develops the model of this coefficient calculation from the data of “Brestplodoovoschprom”. The paper concludes with comparison of the obtained results of solvency estimations and the current standards. The authors offer to use the Z-coefficient for companies’ solvency monitoring.
Transactional Analysis of Vertical Integration in the Oil Industry [09/11/2004]
Bandilet, A.
The paper considers the topical issues concerning the reduction of transaction costs in an effectively functioning vertically integrated structure. During last years, deep socio-economic changes took place in the oil industry. The decline of output at the initial stage of transition contributed to worsening of the social and economic situation. Its consequences were only suspended in recent years. The positive trends observed in the oil industry are caused by the internal changes in companies due to vertical integration. The paper highlights the level of vertical integration and the main factors behind the reduction of transaction costs.
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